UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan takes place on Saturday, October 10 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, airing on Paramount+. Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) in the main event, scheduled for five rounds. The Combat Edge model barely separates them, giving Duncan 52% — even though Elo ratings alone lean the other way (57% for Allen).
Both arrive in form: Allen has won three straight, Duncan five in a row.
Main event: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
| Brendan Allen | Christian Leroy Duncan | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-7-0 | Record | 15-2-0 |
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 6'2" | Height | 6'2" |
| 75" | Reach | 79" |
| United States | Country | — |
| 1819 (#5) | Combat Edge Elo | 1768 (#14) |
| W W W L L | Last 5 | W W W W W |
Allen actually holds the higher Elo (1819 to 1768); the model's lean toward Duncan comes from matchup and form factors beyond the rating. Our pick: Christian Leroy Duncan (52%).
Co-main event: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Matheus Camilo (11-3-0) faces Jai Herbert (14-6-1) at lightweight. The model has Camilo at 59%.
UFC Fight Night predictions: every fight
| Fight | Model pick | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Main card | ||
| Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan | Christian Leroy Duncan | 52% |
| Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert | Matheus Camilo | 59% |
| Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza | Lupita Godinez | 55% |
| Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III | Kai Kamaka III | 60% |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi | Malcolm Wellmaker | 53% |
| Prelims | ||
| Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert | Julius Walker | 73% |
| Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim | Francisco Prado | 53% |
| Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan | Niko Price | 56% |
| Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro | Felipe Franco | 75% |
| Allen Frye vs. RJ Harris | RJ Harris | 63% |
| Alice Pereira vs. Darya Zheleznyakova | Alice Pereira | 58% |
| Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto | Melissa Gatto | 54% |
Fights to watch
- Closest call: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan — the model has Duncan at just 52%.
- Biggest favorite: Felipe Franco at 75% in Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro.
- Model vs. Elo: in Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert, the model picks Matheus Camilo (59%) even though Elo favors the other side.
- Hottest streak: RJ Harris enters on five straight wins.
Make your picks
Think you can beat the model? Pick every fight for free on the UFC Fight Night predictions page — picks lock when the card starts and are graded the morning after. Full bout order and start times are on the UFC Fight Night fight card.
This preview is generated from Combat Edge's fight database and prediction model. Win probabilities are frozen before the event and graded publicly on our accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
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