UFC Fight Night results: Brendan Allen upsets Christian Leroy Duncan

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan belonged to Brendan Allen, who beat Christian Leroy Duncan by submission in round 2 (R5) in the main event on Saturday, October 10 at Meta APEX. By our model's numbers it was an upset: Allen was given 48%. It's Allen's fourth straight win.

The finish came via rear-naked choke at R5 of round 2. Allen gains 12 Elo points to 1831, #3 at middleweight.

In the co-main event, Jai Herbert beat Matheus Camilo by unanimous decision — an upset by the model's numbers (41%).

UFC Fight Night results

Result	Method	Round	Model
Main card
Brendan Allen def. Christian Leroy Duncan	Submission	R2, R5	✗
Jai Herbert def. Matheus Camilo	Unanimous decision	R3, 5:00	✗
Lupita Godinez def. Ketlen Souza	Decision	R3, 5:00	✓
Andre Fili def. Kai Kamaka III	KO	R2, 0:22	✗
Otari Tanzilovi def. Malcolm Wellmaker	KO	R2, 2:39	✗
Prelims
Julius Walker def. Gerald Meerschaert	TKO	R2, 3:35	✓
Francisco Prado def. Ismael Bonfim	TKO	R1, 4:23	✓
Niko Price def. Leon Shahbazyan	TKO	R1, 1:58	✓
Brendson Ribeiro def. Felipe Franco	Submission	R1, 1:49	✗
Allen Frye def. RJ Harris	—	—	✗
Alice Pereira def. Darya Zheleznyakova	—	—	✓
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto — draw	Draw	—	—

Biggest upsets

• Brendson Ribeiro beat Felipe Franco by submission — the model gave the winner 26%.
• Allen Frye beat RJ Harris — the model gave the winner 37%.

Elo movers

• Allen Frye: +26 to 1650
• Brendson Ribeiro: +25 to 1578
• Alice Pereira: +25 to 1642 (#16 women's bantamweight)
• RJ Harris: -26 to 1628
• Felipe Franco: -25 to 1640

How the model did

The Combat Edge model went 5-6 on UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan, with 2 big misses listed above. Every forecast was frozen before the event and is graded publicly on the model accuracy tracker. See round-by-round stats on the UFC Fight Night fight card.

This recap is generated from Combat Edge's fight database, Elo ratings and prediction model.