Combat Edge Model · Full card

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brady predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brady (November 7, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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13Total bouts

13Frozen forecasts

0Close matchups

3Model / Elo splits

7Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

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13 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Gabriel Bonfim20-1-0

Sean Brady19-2-0

Model lean50/50 baseline

57%Gabriel Bonfim43%Sean Brady

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Women's Strawweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Tatiana Suarez12-1-0

Virna Jandiroba23-4-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

70%Tatiana Suarez30%Virna Jandiroba

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%

Middleweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Mantas Kondratavičius9-1-0

Wes Schultz9-4-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

78%Mantas Kondratavičius22%Wes Schultz

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 60% / 40%

Light Heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Billy Elekana10-2-0

Lucas Fernando14-3-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

31%Billy Elekana69%Lucas Fernando

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Austin Bashi14-2-0

Lucas Brennan11-3-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

77%Austin Bashi23%Lucas Brennan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 59% / 41%

Women's Flyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Karine Silva19-7-0

Gabriella Fernandes11-4-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

70%Karine Silva30%Gabriella Fernandes

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 57% / 43%

Women's Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Priscila Cachoeira13-9-0

Nina Milošević9-1-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

18%Priscila Cachoeira82%Nina Milošević

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 32% / 68%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Keiichiro Nakamura8-1-0

Ollie Schmid4-3-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

68%Keiichiro Nakamura32%Ollie Schmid

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 69% / 31%

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Seok Hyeon Ko13-3-0

Wellington Turman18-8-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

75%Seok Hyeon Ko25%Wellington Turman

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 58% / 42%

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Jonny Parsons9-3-0

Jose Souza9-1-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

41%Jonny Parsons60%Jose Souza

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 55% / 45%

Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Davey Grant18-8-0

Elijah Smith10-1-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

26%Davey Grant74%Elijah Smith

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 43% / 57%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

José Delano17-3-0

Murtazali Magomedov11-0-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

44%José Delano56%Murtazali Magomedov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

Heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Gabriel Lourenço8-1-0

Alvin Hines7-2-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

79%Gabriel Lourenço21%Alvin Hines

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 59% / 41%