Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast47%Stephen Thompson53%Charles RadtkeFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Stephen ThompsonWonderboy |17-9-1Stephen Thompson vs Charles RadtkeCharles RadtkeChuck Buffalo |12-5-0

Stephen ThompsonWonderboy17-9-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

17-9-1Record12-5-0

43Age36

6'0"Height5'10"

75"Reach72"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Charles RadtkeChuck Buffalo12-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Stephen Thompson owns a 46-point Elo edge (good). Stephen Thompson shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Stephen Thompson and Charles Radtke across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtke

Recent form

Stephen ThompsonL L L W L · -41 Elo last 5

LLLWL

Charles RadtkeW W L W L · +21 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Elo edge

Stephen Thompson1702-12 last move

Charles Radtke1656+17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Stephen Thompson#76 of 384 active Welterweight fighters · 1702 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kevin Holland (rated 1744 at the time): +20.
Costliest loss: Lost to Anthony Pettis (rated 1723 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -41 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #75 Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, 1 ahead of #77 Alexey Polpudnikov.

Charles Radtke#130 of 384 active Welterweight fighters · 1656 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Raheam Forest (rated 1532 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Carlos Prates (rated 1678 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +21 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #129 Cam Nelson, 0 ahead of #131 Muslim Tulshaev.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

47%Stephen Thompson53%Charles Radtke

Model favoriteCharles Radtke

Elo baseline43% for Charles Radtke

Matchup adjustment+10 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Charles RadtkeStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Charles Radtke is 53%, after Elo alone favored Stephen Thompson at 57%.

Current Elo ratings1702 · 1656Stephen Thompson leads by 46 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1750 · 1603Stephen Thompson faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth23 · 17 fightsStephen Thompson has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesStephen Thompson 4 · 0 Charles RadtkeStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Stephen Thompson.

What's at stake

Stephen ThompsonNow 1702 · #76 Welterweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1716

Loses by decision-18→ 1684

Charles RadtkeNow 1656 · #130 Welterweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1674

Loses by decision-14→ 1642

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Stephen ThompsonvsCharles Radtke

Takedown accuracy

36%vs0%

Takedown defense

63%vs0%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3vs10.94

Sig. strike defense

55%vs30%

Finishing profile

Stephen ThompsonKO/TKO leads 47% of wins

Charles RadtkeKO/TKO leads 42% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtke

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.05Sig. strikes landed per min2.32

UFC welterweight average : 3.65

46Sig. strike accuracy50

UFC welterweight average : 46%

3Sig. strikes absorbed per min10.94

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

55Sig. strike defense30

UFC welterweight average : 53%

0.23Takedown average0

UFC welterweight average : 1.43

36Takedown accuracy0

UFC welterweight average : 30%

63Takedown defense0

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0Submission average0

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

8Wins by knockout5

1Wins by submission3

8Wins by decision4

2Losses by knockout3

1Losses by submission0

6Losses by decision2

Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Stephen Thompson enters with a 17-9-1 record and Charles Radtke enters with a 12-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.