Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast63%Caio Borralho37%Yousri BelgarouiFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Caio BorralhoThe Natural |18-2-0Caio Borralho vs Yousri BelgarouiYousri BelgarouiBaby Face Assassin |11-3-0

Caio BorralhoThe Natural18-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

18-2-0Record11-3-0

33Age34

6'2"Height6'5"

75"Reach79"

185 lbsWeight190 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Yousri BelgarouiBaby Face Assassin11-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Caio Borralho owns a 129-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Caio Borralho and Yousri Belgaroui across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Caio BorralhoYousri Belgaroui

Recent form

Caio BorralhoW L W W W · +33 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Yousri BelgarouiW W W W W · +102 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Caio Borralho1794+16 last move

Yousri Belgaroui1665+18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Caio Borralho#7 of 290 active Middleweight fighters · 1794 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (rated 1715 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Nassourdine Imavov (rated 1773 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +33 Elo in total.
Next places: 17 points behind #6 Kamaru Usman, 4 ahead of #8 Nassourdine Imavov.

Yousri Belgaroui#91 of 290 active Middleweight fighters · 1665 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Azamat Bekoev (rated 1749 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Marco Tulio (rated 1626 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +102 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #90 Jaime Cordero, 1 ahead of #92 Dalton Rosta.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

63%Caio Borralho37%Yousri Belgaroui

Model favoriteCaio Borralho

Elo baseline68% for Caio Borralho

Matchup adjustment-5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Caio BorralhoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Caio Borralho leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 5 points.

Current Elo ratings1794 · 1665Caio Borralho leads by 129 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1689 · 1591Caio Borralho faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth19 · 15 fightsCaio Borralho has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesCaio Borralho 2 · 2 Yousri BelgarouiStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Yousri Belgaroui.

What's at stake

Caio BorralhoNow 1794 · #7 Middleweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1804

Loses by decision-22→ 1772

Yousri BelgarouiNow 1665 · #91 Middleweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1687

Loses by decision-10→ 1655

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Caio BorralhovsYousri Belgaroui

Takedown accuracy

4%vs100%

Takedown average

1.25vs0.27

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.47vs6.44

Submission average

0.39vs0

Finishing profile

Caio Borralhodecision leads 50% of wins

Yousri BelgarouiKO/TKO leads 82% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Caio BorralhoYousri Belgaroui

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.47Sig. strikes landed per min6.44

UFC middleweight average : 3.93

56Sig. strike accuracy63

UFC middleweight average : 48%

2.61Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.28

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

60Sig. strike defense64

UFC middleweight average : 52%

1.25Takedown average0.27

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

4Takedown accuracy100

UFC middleweight average : 29%

76Takedown defense67

UFC middleweight average : 59%

0.39Submission average0

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

5Wins by knockout9

4Wins by submission0

9Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision3

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui is a scheduled Middleweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Caio Borralho enters with a 18-2-0 record and Yousri Belgaroui enters with a 11-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.