UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev takes place on Saturday, October 24 at Etihad Arena in Yas Island, Yas West, United Arab Emirates, airing on Paramount+. Alexander Volkanovski (28-4-0) meets Movsar Evloev (20-0-0) in the main event for the featherweight title, scheduled for five rounds. The Combat Edge model makes Evloev a clear favorite at 65% — even though Elo ratings alone lean the other way (51% for Volkanovski).
Evloev enters on a five-fight win streak.
Main event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
| Alexander Volkanovski | Movsar Evloev | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-4-0 | Record | 20-0-0 |
| 38 | Age | 32 |
| 5'6" | Height | 5'8" |
| 71″ | Reach | 72" |
| Australia | Country | Russia |
| 1865 (#1) | Combat Edge Elo | 1861 (#2) |
| W W L L W | Last 5 | W W W W W |
Volkanovski actually holds the higher Elo (1865 to 1861); the model's lean toward Evloev comes from matchup and form factors beyond the rating. There's a 6-year age gap: Evloev is 32, Volkanovski is 38. Our pick: Movsar Evloev (65%).
Co-main event: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan (20-5-0) faces Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) for the bantamweight title. The model has Dvalishvili at 59%. Dvalishvili is coming off a loss.
UFC 333 predictions: every fight
| Fight | Model pick | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Main card | ||
| Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | Movsar Evloev | 65% |
| Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili | Merab Dvalishvili | 59% |
| Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov | Ramazan Temirov | 58% |
| Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev | Alexander Volkov | 54% |
| Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita | Aaron Pico | 57% |
| Prelims | ||
| Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov | Azamat Murzakanov | 50% |
| Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 72% |
| Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston | Cam Rowston | 68% |
| Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | Grant Dawson | 55% |
| Early prelims | ||
| Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov | Colby Thicknesse | 51% |
| Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun | Abubakar Vagaev | 52% |
| Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos | Bolaji Oki | 54% |
| Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon | Noah Gugnon | 60% |
| Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari | Iasmin Lucindo | 80% |
Fights to watch
- Closest call: Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov — the model has Murzakanov at just 50%.
- Biggest favorite: Iasmin Lucindo at 80% in Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari.
- Model vs. Elo: in Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita, the model picks Aaron Pico (57%) even though Elo favors the other side.
- Hottest streak: Ramazan Temirov enters on five straight wins.
Make your picks
Think you can beat the model? Pick every fight for free on the UFC 333 predictions page — picks lock when the card starts and are graded the morning after. Full bout order and start times are on the UFC 333 fight card.
This preview is generated from Combat Edge's fight database and prediction model. Win probabilities are frozen before the event and graded publicly on our accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
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