Donte Johnson vs César Almeida

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast72%Donte Johnson28%César AlmeidaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Donte JohnsonLockjaw |9-0-0Donte Johnson vs César AlmeidaCésar AlmeidaCesinha |7-3-0

Donte JohnsonLockjaw9-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-0-0Record7-3-0

27Age38

5'8"Height6'1"

74"Reach74"

209 lbsWeight185 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

César AlmeidaCesinha7-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Donte Johnson owns a 78-point Elo edge (good). Donte Johnson shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Donte Johnson and César Almeida across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Donte JohnsonCésar Almeida

Recent form

Donte JohnsonW W W W W · +112 Elo last 5

WWWWW

César AlmeidaL L W W L · -8 Elo last 5

LLWWL

Elo edge

Donte Johnson1706+25 last move

César Almeida1628-26 last move

Why they are ranked here

Donte Johnson#48 of 282 active Middleweight fighters · 1706 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Sedriques Dumas (rated 1660 at the time): +31.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +112 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #47 Brunno Ferreira, 2 ahead of #49 Nikolay Aleksakhin.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1529 Elo over the last 9 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

César Almeida#125 of 282 active Middleweight fighters · 1628 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Dylan Budka (rated 1628 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Damian Pinas (rated 1688 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -8 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #124 Yilizhati Maimaitijiang, 0 ahead of #126 Gustavo Sousa.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

72%Donte Johnson28%César Almeida

Model favoriteDonte Johnson

Elo baseline61% for Donte Johnson

Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Donte JohnsonStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Donte Johnson leads the full model at 72%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 11 points.

Current Elo ratings1706 · 1628Donte Johnson leads by 78 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1529 · 1615César Almeida faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 10 fightsCésar Almeida has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesDonte Johnson 4 · 0 César AlmeidaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Donte Johnson.

What's at stake

Donte JohnsonNow 1706 · #48 Middleweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1725

Loses by decision-29→ 1677

César AlmeidaNow 1628 · #125 Middleweight

Wins by decision+20→ 1648

Loses by decision-12→ 1616

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Donte JohnsonvsCésar Almeida

Takedown accuracy

100%vs0%

Takedown average

1.87vs0.20

Submission average

0.62vs0.20

Takedown defense

77%vs53%

Finishing profile

Donte JohnsonKO/TKO leads 78% of wins

César AlmeidaKO/TKO leads 71% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Donte JohnsonCésar Almeida

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.36Sig. strikes landed per min3.73

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

46Sig. strike accuracy60

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

2.11Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.23

UFC heavyweight average : 3.92

61Sig. strike defense44

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

1.87Takedown average0.20

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

100Takedown accuracy0

UFC heavyweight average : 29%

77Takedown defense53

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

0.62Submission average0.20

UFC heavyweight average : 0.45

7Wins by knockout5

1Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision2

Donte Johnson vs César Almeida is a scheduled Middleweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Donte Johnson enters with a 9-0-0 record and César Almeida enters with a 7-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.