Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast50%Evan Elder50%Samuel SanchesFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Evan ElderThe Phenom |10-2-0Evan Elder vs Samuel SanchesSamuel SanchesThe Prodigy |11-1-0

Evan ElderThe Phenom10-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-2-0Record11-1-0

29Age23

5'9"Height5'10"

72"Reach74"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Samuel SanchesThe Prodigy11-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Samuel Sanches owns a 27-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Evan Elder and Samuel Sanches across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Evan ElderSamuel Sanches

Recent form

Evan ElderW W W L L · +5 Elo last 5

WWWLL

Samuel SanchesW W W W W · +68 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Evan Elder1651+15 last move

Samuel Sanches1678+10 last move

Why they are ranked here

Evan Elder#167 of 460 active Lightweight fighters · 1651 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Genaro Valdéz (rated 1604 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Nazim Sadykhov (rated 1641 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #166 Joaquim Silva, 0 ahead of #168 Anthony Figueroa.

Samuel Sanches#108 of 460 active Lightweight fighters · 1678 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Walef Pereira (rated 1500 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Hugo Vargas (rated 1500 at the time): -36.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +68 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #107 Darragh Kelly, 1 ahead of #109 Josiah Harrell.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

50%Evan Elder50%Samuel Sanches

Model favoriteEvan Elder

Elo baseline46% for Evan Elder

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Evan ElderStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Evan Elder is 50%, after Elo alone favored Samuel Sanches at 54%.

Current Elo ratings1651 · 1678Samuel Sanches leads by 27 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1545 · 1485Evan Elder faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth12 · 12 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesEvan Elder 2 · 2 Samuel SanchesStrongest available gap: Sig. strikes absorbed per min toward Samuel Sanches.

What's at stake

Evan ElderNow 1651 · #167 Lightweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1668

Loses by decision-15→ 1636

Samuel SanchesNow 1678 · #108 Lightweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1693

Loses by decision-17→ 1661

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Evan EldervsSamuel Sanches

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

4.94vs0

Takedown defense

40%vs100%

Takedown average

0.48vs0

Submission average

0.48vs0

Finishing profile

Evan ElderKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Samuel SanchesKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Evan ElderSamuel Sanches

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.66Sig. strikes landed per min5.95

UFC lightweight average : 3.84

51Sig. strike accuracy75

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.94Sig. strikes absorbed per min0

UFC lightweight average : 3.89

57Sig. strike defense100

UFC lightweight average : 54%

0.48Takedown average0

UFC lightweight average : 1.66

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

40Takedown defense100

UFC lightweight average : 58%

0.48Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.54

4Wins by knockout8

2Wins by submission1

4Wins by decision2

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision0

Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Evan Elder enters with a 10-2-0 record and Samuel Sanches enters with a 11-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.