Adrian Yanez vs Juan Díaz

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast37%Adrian Yanez63%Juan DíazFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Adrian Yanez18-6-1Adrian Yanez vs Juan DíazJuan DíazPegajoso |16-1-1

Adrian Yanez18-6-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

18-6-1Record16-1-1

32Age28

5'7"Height5'7"

70"Reach69"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Juan DíazPegajoso16-1-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Juan Díaz owns a 30-point Elo edge (good). Juan Díaz shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Adrian Yanez and Juan Díaz across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Adrian YanezJuan Díaz

Recent form

Adrian YanezW D L W L · +5 Elo last 5

WDLWL

Juan DíazW W W W W · +60 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Adrian Yanez1708+19 last move

Juan Díaz1738+18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Adrian Yanez#52 of 385 active Bantamweight fighters · 1708 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Cody Garbrandt (rated 1690 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jonathan Martinez (rated 1672 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #51 Su Young You, 0 ahead of #53 Chermen Gobaev.

Juan Díaz#28 of 385 active Bantamweight fighters · 1738 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Malcolm Wellmaker (rated 1699 at the time): +18.
Costliest loss: Lost to Rodrigo Vera (rated 1654 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +60 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #27 Kai Asakura, 1 ahead of #29 Naoki Inoue.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

37%Adrian Yanez63%Juan Díaz

Model favoriteJuan Díaz

Elo baseline54% for Juan Díaz

Matchup adjustment+9 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Juan DíazStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Juan Díaz leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 8 points.

Current Elo ratings1708 · 1738Juan Díaz leads by 30 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1669 · 1555Adrian Yanez faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth25 · 16 fightsAdrian Yanez has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAdrian Yanez 1 · 3 Juan DíazStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Juan Díaz.

What's at stake

Adrian YanezNow 1708 · #52 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1721

Loses by decision-11→ 1697

Juan DíazNow 1738 · #28 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1753

Loses by decision-17→ 1721

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Adrian YanezvsJuan Díaz

Takedown average

0vs5.50

Takedown accuracy

0%vs36%

Takedown defense

76%vs0%

Submission average

0vs0.79

Finishing profile

Adrian YanezKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Juan Díazdecision leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Adrian YanezJuan Díaz

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.95Sig. strikes landed per min3.72

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

42Sig. strike accuracy42

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

5.22Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.40

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

57Sig. strike defense59

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

0Takedown average5.50

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

0Takedown accuracy36

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

76Takedown defense0

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0Submission average0.79

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

12Wins by knockout5

2Wins by submission3

4Wins by decision8

2Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

4Losses by decision1

Adrian Yanez vs Juan Díaz is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Adrian Yanez enters with a 18-6-1 record and Juan Díaz enters with a 16-1-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.