Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast51%Nazim Sadykhov49%Jefferson NascimentoFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Nazim SadykhovBlack Wolf |11-3-1Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson NascimentoJefferson NascimentoToddynho |13-1-0

Nazim SadykhovBlack Wolf11-3-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-3-1Record13-1-0

32Age27

5'10"Height5'7"

69"Reach71"

155 lbsWeight154 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Jefferson NascimentoToddynho13-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Nazim Sadykhov owns a 11-point Elo edge (good). Nazim Sadykhov shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Nazim Sadykhov and Jefferson Nascimento across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimento

Recent form

Nazim SadykhovL L W W D · -8 Elo last 5

LLWWD

Jefferson NascimentoL L W W W · -24 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Nazim Sadykhov1686-23 last move

Jefferson Nascimento1675-18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Nazim Sadykhov#98 of 459 active Lightweight fighters · 1686 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Evan Elder (rated 1620 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Matheus Camilo (rated 1635 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 2 losses, -8 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #97 Théo Ulrich, 0 ahead of #99 Thiago Moisés.

Jefferson Nascimento#97 of 384 active Welterweight fighters · 1675 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yuri Neles (rated 1500 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Tahir Abdullaev (rated 1482 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -24 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #96 Andreeas Binder, 0 ahead of #98 Lucas Gabriel.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

51%Nazim Sadykhov49%Jefferson Nascimento

Model favoriteNazim Sadykhov

Elo baseline52% for Nazim Sadykhov

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Nazim SadykhovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Nazim Sadykhov leads the full model at 51%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model keeps the same probability.

Current Elo ratings1686 · 1675Nazim Sadykhov leads by 11 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1624 · 1517Nazim Sadykhov faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth15 · 15 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNazim Sadykhov 3 · 1 Jefferson NascimentoStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Nazim Sadykhov.

What's at stake

Nazim SadykhovNow 1686 · #98 Lightweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1701

Loses by decision-17→ 1669

Jefferson NascimentoNow 1675 · #97 Welterweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1692

Loses by decision-15→ 1660

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

PremiumRun the what-if simulator

Pick the winner and the method to see both fighters' new ratings, new division ranks and who they'd pass.

Go Premium to run itZero ads included · from $5/mo

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Nazim SadykhovvsJefferson Nascimento

Takedown average

1.08vs0

Takedown accuracy

9%vs0%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

5.42vs2.56

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.69vs2.42

Finishing profile

Nazim SadykhovKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Jefferson NascimentoKO/TKO leads 38% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimento

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.69Sig. strikes landed per min2.42

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

49Sig. strike accuracy49

UFC lightweight average : 46%

5.42Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.56

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

49Sig. strike defense57

UFC lightweight average : 53%

1.08Takedown average0

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

9Takedown accuracy0

UFC lightweight average : 28%

72Takedown defense67

UFC lightweight average : 58%

0.22Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

8Wins by knockout5

2Wins by submission3

1Wins by decision5

2Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Nazim Sadykhov enters with a 11-3-1 record and Jefferson Nascimento enters with a 13-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.