UFC FIGHT NIGHT : CORTES ACOSTA VS WALKER

Gabriel Lourenço vs Thomas Petersen

Nov 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast62%Gabriel Lourenço38%Thomas PetersenFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Gabriel LourençoThe Black Mamba |8-1-0Gabriel Lourenço vs Thomas PetersenThomas PetersenThe Train |11-5-0

Gabriel LourençoThe Black Mamba8-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-1-0Record11-5-0

27Age31

6'2"Height6'1"

76"Reach74"

265 lbsWeight257 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Thomas PetersenThe Train11-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Gabriel Lourenço owns a 40-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Gabriel Lourenço and Thomas Petersen across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Gabriel LourençoThomas Petersen

Recent form

Gabriel LourençoW W W W W · +105 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Thomas PetersenL W L W L · -13 Elo last 5

LWLWL

Elo edge

Gabriel Lourenço1665+26 last move

Thomas Petersen1625-14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Gabriel Lourenço#61 of 185 active Heavyweight fighters · 1665 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Bruno Land (rated 1500 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Igor Cavalcanti (rated 1542 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +105 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #60 Mick Parkin, 1 ahead of #62 Gokhan Saricam.

Thomas Petersen#85 of 185 active Heavyweight fighters · 1625 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Chandler Cole (rated 1625 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jamal Pogues (rated 1632 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #84 Denzel Freeman, 2 ahead of #86 Jamal Pogues.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

62%Gabriel Lourenço38%Thomas Petersen

Model favoriteGabriel Lourenço

Elo baseline56% for Gabriel Lourenço

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Gabriel LourençoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Gabriel Lourenço leads the full model at 62%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1665 · 1625Gabriel Lourenço leads by 40 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1511 · 1629Thomas Petersen faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 16 fightsThomas Petersen has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Gabriel LourençoNow 1665 · #61 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1686

Loses by decision-27→ 1638

Thomas PetersenNow 1625 · #85 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1643

Loses by decision-14→ 1611

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Gabriel LourençovsThomas Petersen

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Gabriel LourençoKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Thomas PetersenKO/TKO leads 64% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Gabriel LourençoThomas Petersen

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min3.04

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

Not availableSig. strike accuracy59

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min2.57

UFC heavyweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defense55

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown average2.95

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

Not availableTakedown accuracy3

UFC heavyweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defense88

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

Not availableSubmission average0.37

UFC heavyweight average : 0.45

6Wins by knockout7

1Wins by submission1

1Wins by decision3

1Losses by knockout3

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision1

Gabriel Lourenço vs Thomas Petersen is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : CORTES ACOSTA VS WALKER. Gabriel Lourenço enters with a 8-1-0 record and Thomas Petersen enters with a 11-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.